Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0–1 Avispa Fukuoka

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Avispa Fukuoka

Y. Hashimoto 16'

4/5/2026

J1 League · Round 9Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima55%

×Draw24%

Avispa Fukuoka21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sanfrecce HiroshimaExpected goals in this matchAvispa Fukuoka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.96

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.71

Avispa Fukuoka

0.96

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 78% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.97

creates per match

0.98

0.95

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.97

Avispa Fukuoka

0.98

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

0.95

Avispa Fukuoka

1.44

-1.17scores less than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima-1.17scores less

Avispa Fukuoka-0.15scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

Avispa Fukuoka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw

79%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Avispa Fukuoka

76%

Draw or Avispa Fukuoka

45%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

30%

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

82%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

51%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

24%

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals

62%

Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals

25%

Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

72%

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.95 · 5 matches

Avispa Fukuoka away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.44 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.97 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.71

Avispa Fukuoka attack 0.98 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

55%

level

24%

Avispa Fukuoka scores more

21%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

H. Araki

Sanfrecce Hiroshima · D

8.5

Match Events

16'

Y. Hashimoto↳ Y. Tsujioka

46'

S. Higashi← S. Nakano

50'

Shosei Usui

57'

T. Arslan← Y. Nakajima

58'

M. Kato← K. Kinoshita

63'

Masaya Tashiro

63'

K. Okuno← K. Shiihashi

63'

Y. Kitajima← M. Shigemi

66'

R. Germain← A. Suzuki

71'

K. Fujimoto← S. Nago

71'

Y. Michiwaki← S. Usui

73'

79'

82'

90+4'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanfrecceAvispa

Overview

75%Possession25%

14Total Shots13

2.05Expected Goals (xG)1.33

5Corners3

10Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots13

4On Target3

7Off Target6

3Blocked4

12Inside Box8

2Outside Box5

Passing

75%Possession25%

673Total Passes223

591Accurate Passes143

88%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

J1 League: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0–1 Avispa Fukuoka

Avispa Fukuoka beat Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-0 in J1 League on April 5, 2026.

Goals: Y. Hashimoto (16').

Sanfrecce Hiroshima controlled possession (75%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima in Hiroshima.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Avispa Fukuoka — J1 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

J1 League: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0–1 Avispa Fukuoka