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Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — J1 League 2018

Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
9/27/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 32Best Denki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka32%
×Draw29%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avispa Fukuoka
1.05
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.20

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 14% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 148 away

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.03
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.30

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.09
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.07

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par
Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw
61%
Avispa Fukuoka or Sanfrecce Hiroshima
71%
Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima
68%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
12%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
65%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
28%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
9%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
70%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
34%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
45%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.07 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.03 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.05

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.30 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more
32%
level
29%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
39%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Avispa Fukuoka 1–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Sanfrecce Hiroshima beat Avispa Fukuoka 2-1 in J1 League on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Best Denki Stadium in Fukuoka.