Sandviken W 2–0 Rosenborg W: Result & Stats

Sandviken W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rosenborg W

K. Cordner 67'

I. Ryland 5'

8/14/2021

Toppserien · Round 11Stemmemyren kunstgressbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sandviken W69%

×Draw18%

Rosenborg W14%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sandviken WExpected goals in this matchRosenborg W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

0.97

Sandviken W

2.41

Rosenborg W

0.97

Sandviken W creates 148% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 66 away

3.67

creates per match

1.83

0.11

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Sandviken W

3.67

Rosenborg W

1.83

allows per match

Sandviken W

0.11

Rosenborg W

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandviken W+0.00on par

Rosenborg W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandviken W ↓

Rosenborg W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Sandviken W or draw

86%

Sandviken W or Rosenborg W

82%

Draw or Rosenborg W

31%

Winning margin

Sandviken W wins by 2+

46%

Rosenborg W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sandviken W 1+ goals

91%

Sandviken W 2+ goals

69%

Sandviken W 3+ goals

43%

Rosenborg W 1+ goals

62%

Rosenborg W 2+ goals

25%

Rosenborg W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sandviken W (draw refunded)

84%

Rosenborg W (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandviken W at home — creates 3.67, concedes 0.11 · 9 matches

Rosenborg W away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.15 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandviken W attack 3.67 + Rosenborg W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 2.41

Rosenborg W attack 1.83 + Sandviken W defence 0.11 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Sandviken W scores more

69%

level

18%

Rosenborg W scores more

14%

Sandviken W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Sandviken W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

I. Ryland

67'

E. Bragstad← C. Andreassen

67'

K. Cordner

69'

M. Brochmann← K. Cordner

75'

S. Fornes← L. Karlseng Utland

75'

S. Hansen← E. Joramo

90+2'

R. Engesvik← E. Terland

Sandviken

Rosenborg

1

8

3

2

4

5

▼

20

6

41

7

▼

Joramo

27

▼

Utland

1

Mikalsen

22

⚽

4

19

15

8

11

10

9

33

▼

Terland

32

⚽

▼

Cordner

Manager: A. Straus

69'▲M. Brochmann←▼K. Cordner

90+2'▲R. Engesvik←▼E. Terland

Sandviken W substitutes

99Brochmann7Engesvik5Stenevik21Stavenes23Bogstad2Kvamme18Grøndal6Aune

Manager: S. Lein

67'▲E. Bragstad←▼C. Andreassen

75'▲S. Fornes←▼L. Karlseng Utland

75'▲S. Hansen←▼E. Joramo

Rosenborg W substitutes

19Bragstad10Fornes21Hansen11Døvle18Brønstad88Lein22Sneve