Rosenborg W 0–2 Sandviken W: Result & Stats

Rosenborg W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sandviken W

I. Spord 85'

M. Brochmann 66'

7/17/2021

Toppserien · Round 9Koteng Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rosenborg W38%

×Draw26%

Sandviken W35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rosenborg WExpected goals in this matchSandviken W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.27

Rosenborg W

1.34

Sandviken W

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 9 away

2.13

creates per match

1.89

0.65

allows per match

0.56

creates per match

Rosenborg W

2.13

Sandviken W

1.89

allows per match

Rosenborg W

0.65

Sandviken W

0.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rosenborg W+0.00on par

Sandviken W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg W ↓

Sandviken W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rosenborg W or draw

65%

Rosenborg W or Sandviken W

74%

Draw or Sandviken W

62%

Winning margin

Rosenborg W wins by 2+

17%

Sandviken W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rosenborg W 1+ goals

74%

Rosenborg W 2+ goals

39%

Rosenborg W 3+ goals

15%

Sandviken W 1+ goals

72%

Sandviken W 2+ goals

36%

Sandviken W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg W (draw refunded)

52%

Sandviken W (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg W at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.65 · 69 matches

Sandviken W away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg W attack 2.13 + Sandviken W defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.34

Sandviken W attack 1.89 + Rosenborg W defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rosenborg W scores more

38%

level

26%

Sandviken W scores more

35%

Rosenborg W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rosenborg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'

M. Brochmann← K. Cordner

66'

M. Brochmann

77'

S. Brønstad← S. Fornes

77'

E. Lein← S. Hansen

85'

I. Spord

90+2'

I. Stenevik← I. Ryland

Rosenborg

Sandviken

21

Stavenes

22

▼

4

19

15

8

11

10

⚽

Spord

9

Hasund

33

Terland

32

▼

1

8

3

2

4

21

▼

6

41

7

27

10

▼

Fornes

Manager: S. Lein

77'▲S. Brønstad←▼S. Fornes

77'▲E. Lein←▼S. Hansen

Rosenborg W substitutes

18Brønstad88Lein11Døvle24Hofset28Sobczyk22Sneve

Manager: A. Straus

65'▲M. Brochmann←▼K. Cordner

90+2'▲I. Stenevik←▼I. Ryland

Sandviken W substitutes

99Brochmann5Stenevik7Engesvik14Veglo17Neset18Grøndal23Bogstad