Sandviken 5–0 Ostersunds FK: Result & Stats

Sandviken

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Ostersunds FK

M. Simba 89'

M. Lundgren 61', 39'

L. Vabo 52'

K. Bohm 23'

11/8/2025

Superettan · Round 30Jernvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Sandviken54%

×Draw23%

Ostersunds FK24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SandvikenExpected goals in this matchOstersunds FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.17

Sandviken

1.88

Ostersunds FK

1.17

Sandviken creates 61% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

1.71

creates per match

1.16

1.18

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Sandviken

1.71

Ostersunds FK

1.16

allows per match

Sandviken

1.18

Ostersunds FK

2.04

+0.07on par

finishing

-0.74scores less than expected

finishing

Sandviken+0.07on par

Ostersunds FK-0.74scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandviken ↓

Ostersunds FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sandviken or draw

76%

Sandviken or Ostersunds FK

77%

Draw or Ostersunds FK

46%

Winning margin

Sandviken wins by 2+

31%

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sandviken 1+ goals

85%

Sandviken 2+ goals

56%

Sandviken 3+ goals

29%

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

69%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

33%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sandviken (draw refunded)

70%

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandviken at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 9 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.04 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandviken attack 1.71 + Ostersunds FK defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.88

Ostersunds FK attack 1.16 + Sandviken defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sandviken scores more

54%

level

23%

Ostersunds FK scores more

24%

Sandviken at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sandviken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

M. Lundgren

Sandviken · F

8.7

Match Events

23'

K. Bohm↳ M. Simba

30'

Michael Aduragbemi Oluwayemi

33'

M. Lundgren← P. Carlsson

35'

Maill Lundgren

39'

M. Lundgren↳ M. Simba

52'

L. Vabo↳ M. Abubakari

59'

C. N’sa← M. Oluwayemi

59'

T. Johansson← E. Y. Worke

60'

C. Redenstrand← L. Vabo

60'

F. Olsson← V. Backman

60'

M. Mahammed← M. Abubakari

61'

M. Lundgren

64'

Daniel Soderberg

64'

Chrisnovic N'Sa

73'

K. Habibullah← K. Bohm

74'

Christopher Redenstrand

80'

G. Granstrom← Erick Brendon

89'

R. Forsell←

89'

M. Simba↳ D. Soderberg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SandvikenOstersunds

Overview

60%Possession40%

21Total Shots8

2.68Expected Goals (xG)0.45

4Corners3

15Fouls8

Shots

21Total Shots8

9On Target0

4Off Target2

8Blocked6

7Inside Box7

14Outside Box1

Passing

60%Possession40%

577Total Passes334

524Accurate Passes274

91%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0