Sandviken 3–1 Ostersunds FK: Result & Stats

Sandviken

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ostersunds FK

C. Kabuye 67', 60'

E. Engqvist 48'

A. Ordóñez 45+2'

10/5/2024

Superettan · Round 26Arena Jernvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Sandviken57%

×Draw21%

Ostersunds FK22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SandvikenExpected goals in this matchOstersunds FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.21

Sandviken

2.06

Ostersunds FK

1.21

Sandviken creates 70% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

1.93

creates per match

1.20

1.23

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Sandviken

1.93

Ostersunds FK

1.20

allows per match

Sandviken

1.23

Ostersunds FK

2.19

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.74scores less than expected

finishing

Sandviken-0.03on par

Ostersunds FK-0.74scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandviken ↓

Ostersunds FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sandviken or draw

78%

Sandviken or Ostersunds FK

79%

Draw or Ostersunds FK

43%

Winning margin

Sandviken wins by 2+

34%

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sandviken 1+ goals

87%

Sandviken 2+ goals

61%

Sandviken 3+ goals

34%

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

70%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

34%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sandviken (draw refunded)

72%

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandviken at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.23 · 10 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.19 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandviken attack 1.93 + Ostersunds FK defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.06

Ostersunds FK attack 1.20 + Sandviken defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sandviken scores more

57%

level

21%

Ostersunds FK scores more

22%

Sandviken at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sandviken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

C. Kabuye

Sandviken · M

9.3

Match Events

32'

45+2'

48'

60'

65'

Z. Smajlović← K. Harletun

67'

C. Kabuye

74'

S. Karlsson Grach← A. Ordóñez

74'

J. Hopcutt← N. Perry

74'

H. Norrby← Erick Brendon

75'

L. Vabö← L. Małachowski Thorell

75'

J. Kirby← Amin Al Hamawi

82'

O. Sjöstrand← C. Kabuye

82'

J. Kamara← J. Karlsson

83'

A. Bonnah← Ziad Ghanoum

90+5'

Oscar Sjostrand

90'

Mamadou Koyate

90+5'

Adam Ingi Benediktsson

90+3'

J. Hedenquist← M. Musolitin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SandvikenOstersunds

Overview

58%Possession42%

20Total Shots12

4.00Expected Goals (xG)1.65

4Corners5

12Fouls11

Shots

20Total Shots12

8On Target4

4Off Target7

8Blocked0

13Inside Box7

7Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

464Total Passes334

400Accurate Passes271

86%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1