Sandviken 3–4 IFK Goteborg: Result & Stats

Sandviken

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

IFK Goteborg

N. Mohammed 49', 27'

A. Bonnah 46'

C. Johansson 75'

R. Söder 73', 67'

P. Wernbloom 37'

2/20/2021

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Arena Jernvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sandviken18%

×Draw19%

IFK Goteborg63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SandvikenExpected goals in this matchIFK Goteborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

2.37

Sandviken

1.21

IFK Goteborg

2.37

IFK Goteborg creates 96% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 17 away

1.36

creates per match

2.47

2.27

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Sandviken

1.36

IFK Goteborg

2.47

allows per match

Sandviken

2.27

IFK Goteborg

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandviken+0.00on par

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandviken ↓

IFK Goteborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Sandviken or draw

37%

Sandviken or IFK Goteborg

81%

Draw or IFK Goteborg

82%

Winning margin

Sandviken wins by 2+

7%

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Sandviken 1+ goals

70%

Sandviken 2+ goals

34%

Sandviken 3+ goals

12%

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals

91%

IFK Goteborg 2+ goals

68%

IFK Goteborg 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Sandviken (draw refunded)

23%

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandviken at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 2.47, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandviken attack 1.36 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21

IFK Goteborg attack 2.47 + Sandviken defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sandviken scores more

18%

level

19%

IFK Goteborg scores more

63%

IFK Goteborg at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

37'

46'

49'

52'

67'

68'

69'

A. Erlingmark← S. Eriksson

69'

A. Nygaard← A. Jallow

73'

R. Söder

75'

C. Johansson

76'

D. Al-Saed← J. Junior

77'

G. Thorn

78'

A. Yusuf

81'

C. Aspgren← M. Springfeldt

83'

J. Tolinsson← G. Norlin

86'

C. Aspgren

89'

I. Dahlqvist← R. Söder

Sandviken

IFK

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

Manager: T. Gabrielsson

76'▲D. Al-Saed←▼J. Junior

81'▲C. Aspgren←▼M. Springfeldt

Sandviken substitutes

Al-SaedAspgrenHosseiniEngbergSjöstrandVigerbäckWennergrund

Manager: R. Nilsson

68'▲H. Aiesh←▼K. Yakob

69'▲A. Erlingmark←▼S. Eriksson

69'▲A. Nygaard←▼A. Jallow

83'▲J. Tolinsson←▼G. Norlin

89'▲I. Dahlqvist←▼R. Söder

IFK Goteborg substitutes

AieshErlingmarkNygaardTolinssonDahlqvistSöderbergWikström

Match Recap: Sandviken vs IFK Goteborg

IFK Goteborg beat Sandviken 4-3 in Svenska Cupen on February 20, 2021.

Goals: N. Mohammed (27', 49'), P. Wernbloom (37'), A. Bonnah (46'), R. Söder (67', 73'), C. Johansson (75').

The match was played at Arena Jernvallen in Sandviken.

Sandviken vs IFK Goteborg — Svenska Cupen 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sandviken vs IFK Goteborg