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IFK Goteborg vs Sandviken — Svenska Cupen 2019

IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sandviken
Sandviken
2/22/2025Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IFK Goteborg40%
×Draw24%
Sandviken36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Goteborg
1.61
Sandviken
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

IFK Goteborg
1.85
Sandviken
2.15

allows per match

IFK Goteborg
0.85
Sandviken
1.38

finishing

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par
Sandviken+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

Sandviken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw
64%
IFK Goteborg or Sandviken
76%
Draw or Sandviken
60%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
20%
Sandviken wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
80%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
48%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
22%
Sandviken 1+ goals
78%
Sandviken 2+ goals
44%
Sandviken 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
53%
Sandviken (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Sandviken away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.85 + Sandviken defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.61

Sandviken attack 2.15 + IFK Goteborg defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more
40%
level
24%
Sandviken scores more
36%

IFK Goteborg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IFK Goteborg vs Sandviken

IFK Goteborg beat Sandviken 3-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.