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Sandviken vs Djurgardens IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Sandviken
Sandviken
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
3/2/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Göransson Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sandviken13%
×Draw16%
Djurgardens IF72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandviken
1.08
Djurgardens IF
2.76

Djurgardens IF creates 156% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

creates per match

Sandviken
1.36
Djurgardens IF
3.25

allows per match

Sandviken
2.27
Djurgardens IF
0.81

finishing

Sandviken+0.00on par
Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandviken ↓

Djurgardens IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sandviken or draw
28%
Sandviken or Djurgardens IF
84%
Draw or Djurgardens IF
87%

Winning margin

Sandviken wins by 2+
4%
Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Sandviken 1+ goals
66%
Sandviken 2+ goals
29%
Sandviken 3+ goals
10%
Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
94%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
76%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Sandviken (draw refunded)
15%
Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandviken at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandviken attack 1.36 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.08

Djurgardens IF attack 3.25 + Sandviken defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Sandviken scores more
13%
level
16%
Djurgardens IF scores more
72%

Djurgardens IF at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Sandviken 2–2 Djurgardens IF

Sandviken and Djurgardens IF drew 2-2 in Svenska Cupen on March 2, 2020.

The match was played at Göransson Arena in Sandviken.