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Djurgardens IF vs Sandviken — Svenska Cupen 2019

Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sandviken
Sandviken
2/16/2025Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 13Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Djurgardens IF46%
×Draw23%
Sandviken31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djurgardens IF
1.85
Sandviken
1.49

Djurgardens IF creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Djurgardens IF
2.32
Sandviken
2.15

allows per match

Djurgardens IF
0.84
Sandviken
1.38

finishing

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par
Sandviken+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Sandviken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw
69%
Djurgardens IF or Sandviken
77%
Draw or Sandviken
54%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
25%
Sandviken wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
84%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
55%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
28%
Sandviken 1+ goals
77%
Sandviken 2+ goals
44%
Sandviken 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
60%
Sandviken (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Sandviken away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 2.32 + Sandviken defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.85

Sandviken attack 2.15 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more
46%
level
23%
Sandviken scores more
31%

Djurgardens IF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Djurgardens IF 2–0 Sandviken

Djurgardens IF beat Sandviken 2-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at 3Arena in Stockholm.