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Sandnes ULF vs Nest-Sotra — 1. Division 2018

Sandnes ULF
Sandnes ULF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nest-Sotra
Nest-Sotra
10/21/20181. Division1. Division · Round 27Sandnes Idrettspark (Sandnes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sandnes ULF41%
×Draw24%
Nest-Sotra35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandnes ULF
1.55
Nest-Sotra
1.41

Sandnes ULF creates 10% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 31 away

creates per match

Sandnes ULF
1.66
Nest-Sotra
1.23

allows per match

Sandnes ULF
1.58
Nest-Sotra
1.45

finishing

Sandnes ULF+0.00on par
Nest-Sotra+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandnes ULF ↓

Nest-Sotra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sandnes ULF or draw
65%
Sandnes ULF or Nest-Sotra
76%
Draw or Nest-Sotra
59%

Winning margin

Sandnes ULF wins by 2+
20%
Nest-Sotra wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sandnes ULF 1+ goals
79%
Sandnes ULF 2+ goals
46%
Sandnes ULF 3+ goals
20%
Nest-Sotra 1+ goals
76%
Nest-Sotra 2+ goals
41%
Nest-Sotra 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sandnes ULF (draw refunded)
54%
Nest-Sotra (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandnes ULF at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.58 · 112 matches

Nest-Sotra away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandnes ULF attack 1.66 + Nest-Sotra defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.55

Nest-Sotra attack 1.23 + Sandnes ULF defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sandnes ULF scores more
41%
level
24%
Nest-Sotra scores more
35%

Sandnes ULF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sandnes ULF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sandnes ULF vs Nest-Sotra

Sandnes ULF and Nest-Sotra drew 1-1 in 1. Division on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Sandnes Idrettspark (Sandnes).