Nest-Sotra 3–0 Sandnes ULF: Result & Stats

Nest-Sotra

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sandnes ULF

10/20/2019

1. Division · Round 27Ågotnes Stadion (Ågotnes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Nest-Sotra54%

×Draw23%

Sandnes ULF23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nest-SotraExpected goals in this matchSandnes ULF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.07

Nest-Sotra

1.77

Sandnes ULF

1.07

Nest-Sotra creates 65% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 112 away

1.60

creates per match

1.21

0.93

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Nest-Sotra

1.60

Sandnes ULF

1.21

allows per match

Nest-Sotra

0.93

Sandnes ULF

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nest-Sotra+0.00on par

Sandnes ULF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nest-Sotra ↓

Sandnes ULF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Nest-Sotra or draw

77%

Nest-Sotra or Sandnes ULF

77%

Draw or Sandnes ULF

46%

Winning margin

Nest-Sotra wins by 2+

30%

Sandnes ULF wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nest-Sotra 1+ goals

83%

Nest-Sotra 2+ goals

53%

Nest-Sotra 3+ goals

26%

Sandnes ULF 1+ goals

66%

Sandnes ULF 2+ goals

29%

Sandnes ULF 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nest-Sotra (draw refunded)

70%

Sandnes ULF (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nest-Sotra at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

Sandnes ULF away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.95 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nest-Sotra attack 1.60 + Sandnes ULF defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sandnes ULF attack 1.21 + Nest-Sotra defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nest-Sotra scores more

54%

level

23%

Sandnes ULF scores more

23%

Nest-Sotra at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nest-Sotra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff