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Sandnes Ulf II vs Pors Grenland — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Sandnes Ulf II
Sandnes Ulf II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pors Grenland
Pors Grenland
C. A. Dankwah 47'
8/24/20243. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 18Øster Hus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sandnes Ulf II33%
×Draw21%
Pors Grenland46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandnes Ulf II
1.75
Pors Grenland
2.08

Pors Grenland creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

creates per match

Sandnes Ulf II
2.46
Pors Grenland
2.15

allows per match

Sandnes Ulf II
2.00
Pors Grenland
1.05

finishing

Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par
Pors Grenland+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandnes Ulf II ↓

Pors Grenland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Sandnes Ulf II or draw
54%
Sandnes Ulf II or Pors Grenland
79%
Draw or Pors Grenland
67%

Winning margin

Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+
17%
Pors Grenland wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals
83%
Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals
52%
Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals
25%
Pors Grenland 1+ goals
87%
Pors Grenland 2+ goals
61%
Pors Grenland 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)
42%
Pors Grenland (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandnes Ulf II at home — creates 2.46, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Pors Grenland away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandnes Ulf II attack 2.46 + Pors Grenland defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.75

Pors Grenland attack 2.15 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sandnes Ulf II scores more
33%
level
21%
Pors Grenland scores more
46%

Pors Grenland at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pors Grenland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
C. A. Dankwah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sandnes Ulf II vs Pors Grenland

Pors Grenland beat Sandnes Ulf II 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on August 24, 2024.

Goals: C. A. Dankwah (47').

The match was played at Øster Hus Arena in Sandnes.