Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pors Grenland vs Sandnes Ulf II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Pors Grenland
Pors Grenland
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sandnes Ulf II
Sandnes Ulf II
6/29/20243. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 13Pors Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pors Grenland77%
×Draw13%
Sandnes Ulf II9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pors Grenland
2.98
Sandnes Ulf II
0.95

Pors Grenland creates 214% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Pors Grenland
2.42
Sandnes Ulf II
1.00

allows per match

Pors Grenland
0.89
Sandnes Ulf II
3.54

finishing

Pors Grenland+0.00on par
Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pors Grenland ↓

Sandnes Ulf II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Pors Grenland or draw
91%
Pors Grenland or Sandnes Ulf II
87%
Draw or Sandnes Ulf II
23%

Winning margin

Pors Grenland wins by 2+
58%
Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Pors Grenland 1+ goals
95%
Pors Grenland 2+ goals
79%
Pors Grenland 3+ goals
56%
Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals
61%
Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals
25%
Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pors Grenland (draw refunded)
89%
Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pors Grenland at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Sandnes Ulf II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pors Grenland attack 2.42 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 2.98

Sandnes Ulf II attack 1.00 + Pors Grenland defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Pors Grenland scores more
77%
level
13%
Sandnes Ulf II scores more
9%

Pors Grenland at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Pors Grenland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Pors Grenland 2–1 Sandnes Ulf II

Pors Grenland beat Sandnes Ulf II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Pors Stadion in Porsgrunn.