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Sandnes Ulf II vs Haugesund II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Sandnes Ulf II
Sandnes Ulf II
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Haugesund II
Haugesund II
10/6/20253. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 23Øster Hus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sandnes Ulf II32%
×Draw20%
Haugesund II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandnes Ulf II
1.89
Haugesund II
2.34

Haugesund II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sandnes Ulf II
1.54
Haugesund II
1.54

allows per match

Sandnes Ulf II
3.15
Haugesund II
2.23

finishing

Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par
Haugesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandnes Ulf II ↓

Haugesund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Sandnes Ulf II or draw
52%
Sandnes Ulf II or Haugesund II
80%
Draw or Haugesund II
68%

Winning margin

Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+
16%
Haugesund II wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals
85%
Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals
56%
Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals
29%
Haugesund II 1+ goals
90%
Haugesund II 2+ goals
67%
Haugesund II 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)
40%
Haugesund II (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandnes Ulf II at home — creates 1.54, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

Haugesund II away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandnes Ulf II attack 1.54 + Haugesund II defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.89

Haugesund II attack 1.54 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sandnes Ulf II scores more
32%
level
20%
Haugesund II scores more
48%

Haugesund II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Haugesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sandnes Ulf II vs Haugesund II

Haugesund II beat Sandnes Ulf II 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on October 6, 2025.

The match was played at Øster Hus Arena in Sandnes.