Haugesund II 2–6 Sandnes Ulf II: Result & Stats

Haugesund II

FT

2 – 6

HT: 2 – 4

Sandnes Ulf II

Unknown 28', 8'

Unknown 70', 62', 41', 38', 32', 16'

5/10/2022

3. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 5Frakkagjerd Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Haugesund II42%

×Draw20%

Sandnes Ulf II39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Haugesund IIExpected goals in this matchSandnes Ulf II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

2.25

Haugesund II

2.33

Sandnes Ulf II

2.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

2.15

creates per match

1.81

2.69

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Haugesund II

2.15

Sandnes Ulf II

1.81

allows per match

Haugesund II

2.69

Sandnes Ulf II

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haugesund II+0.00on par

Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund II ↓

Sandnes Ulf II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Haugesund II or draw

61%

Haugesund II or Sandnes Ulf II

80%

Draw or Sandnes Ulf II

58%

Winning margin

Haugesund II wins by 2+

24%

Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Haugesund II 1+ goals

90%

Haugesund II 2+ goals

67%

Haugesund II 3+ goals

41%

Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals

89%

Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals

65%

Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Haugesund II (draw refunded)

52%

Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund II at home — creates 2.15, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

Sandnes Ulf II away — creates 1.81, concedes 2.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund II attack 2.15 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.33

Sandnes Ulf II attack 1.81 + Haugesund II defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Haugesund II scores more

42%

level

20%

Sandnes Ulf II scores more

39%

Haugesund II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Haugesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

16'

28'

32'

38'

41'

62'

70'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff