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Sandnes Ulf II vs Fram — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Sandnes Ulf II
Sandnes Ulf II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Fram
Fram
8/11/20243. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 16Øster Hus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sandnes Ulf II43%
×Draw20%
Fram37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandnes Ulf II
2.16
Fram
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sandnes Ulf II
2.46
Fram
2.00

allows per match

Sandnes Ulf II
2.00
Fram
1.85

finishing

Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par
Fram+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandnes Ulf II ↓

Fram →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Sandnes Ulf II or draw
63%
Sandnes Ulf II or Fram
80%
Draw or Fram
57%

Winning margin

Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+
24%
Fram wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals
88%
Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals
63%
Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals
36%
Fram 1+ goals
86%
Fram 2+ goals
59%
Fram 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)
54%
Fram (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandnes Ulf II at home — creates 2.46, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Fram away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandnes Ulf II attack 2.46 + Fram defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.16

Fram attack 2.00 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sandnes Ulf II scores more
43%
level
20%
Fram scores more
37%

Sandnes Ulf II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sandnes Ulf II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Sandnes Ulf II 3–2 Fram

Sandnes Ulf II beat Fram 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on August 11, 2024.

The match was played at Øster Hus Arena in Sandnes.