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Fram vs Sandnes Ulf II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Fram
Fram
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sandnes Ulf II
Sandnes Ulf II
6/2/20243. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 9Framparken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fram74%
×Draw14%
Sandnes Ulf II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fram
3.23
Sandnes Ulf II
1.27

Fram creates 154% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fram
2.92
Sandnes Ulf II
1.00

allows per match

Fram
1.54
Sandnes Ulf II
3.54

finishing

Fram+0.00on par
Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fram ↓

Sandnes Ulf II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Fram or draw
88%
Fram or Sandnes Ulf II
86%
Draw or Sandnes Ulf II
26%

Winning margin

Fram wins by 2+
55%
Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Fram 1+ goals
96%
Fram 2+ goals
82%
Fram 3+ goals
61%
Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals
72%
Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals
36%
Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fram (draw refunded)
86%
Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fram at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Sandnes Ulf II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fram attack 2.92 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 3.23

Sandnes Ulf II attack 1.00 + Fram defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Fram scores more
74%
level
14%
Sandnes Ulf II scores more
12%

Fram at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Fram will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fram vs Sandnes Ulf II

Fram beat Sandnes Ulf II 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Framparken in Larvik.