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Sandnes Ulf II vs Frøya — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Sandnes Ulf II
Sandnes Ulf II
FT
1 – 1
Frøya
Frøya
4/29/20233. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 4Øster Hus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sandnes Ulf II47%
×Draw22%
Frøya31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandnes Ulf II
2.00
Frøya
1.61

Sandnes Ulf II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sandnes Ulf II
2.38
Frøya
1.38

allows per match

Sandnes Ulf II
1.85
Frøya
1.62

finishing

Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par
Frøya+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandnes Ulf II ↓

Frøya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Sandnes Ulf II or draw
69%
Sandnes Ulf II or Frøya
78%
Draw or Frøya
53%

Winning margin

Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+
27%
Frøya wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals
86%
Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals
59%
Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals
32%
Frøya 1+ goals
80%
Frøya 2+ goals
48%
Frøya 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)
60%
Frøya (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandnes Ulf II at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

Frøya away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandnes Ulf II attack 2.38 + Frøya defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.00

Frøya attack 1.38 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sandnes Ulf II scores more
47%
level
22%
Frøya scores more
31%

Sandnes Ulf II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sandnes Ulf II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Sandnes Ulf II 1–1 Frøya

Sandnes Ulf II and Frøya drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Øster Hus Arena in Sandnes.