Frøya 2–1 Sandnes Ulf II: Result & Stats

Frøya

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sandnes Ulf II

9/23/2023

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 21Frøya idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Frøya47%

×Draw23%

Sandnes Ulf II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrøyaExpected goals in this matchSandnes Ulf II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.48

Frøya

1.86

Sandnes Ulf II

1.48

Frøya creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

1.23

creates per match

1.81

1.15

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Frøya

1.23

Sandnes Ulf II

1.81

allows per match

Frøya

1.15

Sandnes Ulf II

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frøya+0.00on par

Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frøya ↓

Sandnes Ulf II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Frøya or draw

69%

Frøya or Sandnes Ulf II

77%

Draw or Sandnes Ulf II

53%

Winning margin

Frøya wins by 2+

26%

Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Frøya 1+ goals

84%

Frøya 2+ goals

55%

Frøya 3+ goals

28%

Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals

77%

Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals

43%

Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Frøya (draw refunded)

60%

Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frøya at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Sandnes Ulf II away — creates 1.81, concedes 2.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frøya attack 1.23 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.86

Sandnes Ulf II attack 1.81 + Frøya defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Frøya scores more

47%

level

23%

Sandnes Ulf II scores more

31%

Frøya at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Frøya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff