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Sandnes Ulf II vs Bjarg — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Sandnes Ulf II
Sandnes Ulf II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bjarg
Bjarg
10/23/20223. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 26Øster Hus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sandnes Ulf II42%
×Draw21%
Bjarg36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandnes Ulf II
1.98
Bjarg
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Sandnes Ulf II
2.38
Bjarg
1.81

allows per match

Sandnes Ulf II
1.85
Bjarg
1.58

finishing

Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par
Bjarg+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandnes Ulf II ↓

Bjarg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Sandnes Ulf II or draw
64%
Sandnes Ulf II or Bjarg
79%
Draw or Bjarg
58%

Winning margin

Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+
23%
Bjarg wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals
86%
Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals
59%
Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals
31%
Bjarg 1+ goals
84%
Bjarg 2+ goals
54%
Bjarg 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)
54%
Bjarg (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandnes Ulf II at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

Bjarg away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandnes Ulf II attack 2.38 + Bjarg defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.98

Bjarg attack 1.81 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sandnes Ulf II scores more
42%
level
21%
Bjarg scores more
36%

Sandnes Ulf II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sandnes Ulf II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sandnes Ulf II vs Bjarg

Sandnes Ulf II and Bjarg drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Øster Hus Arena in Sandnes.