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Bjarg vs Sandnes Ulf II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Bjarg
Bjarg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sandnes Ulf II
Sandnes Ulf II
A. Austevoll 89'
M. Eiane 41'
J. Brune Aune 35'
6/11/20223. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 10Stavollen stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bjarg53%
×Draw20%
Sandnes Ulf II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bjarg
2.41
Sandnes Ulf II
1.73

Bjarg creates 39% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Bjarg
2.31
Sandnes Ulf II
1.81

allows per match

Bjarg
1.65
Sandnes Ulf II
2.50

finishing

Bjarg+0.00on par
Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bjarg ↓

Sandnes Ulf II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Bjarg or draw
72%
Bjarg or Sandnes Ulf II
80%
Draw or Sandnes Ulf II
47%

Winning margin

Bjarg wins by 2+
33%
Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bjarg 1+ goals
91%
Bjarg 2+ goals
69%
Bjarg 3+ goals
43%
Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals
82%
Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals
52%
Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Bjarg (draw refunded)
65%
Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bjarg at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

Sandnes Ulf II away — creates 1.81, concedes 2.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bjarg attack 2.31 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.41

Sandnes Ulf II attack 1.81 + Bjarg defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bjarg scores more
53%
level
20%
Sandnes Ulf II scores more
28%

Bjarg at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bjarg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
J. Brune Aune
41'
M. Eiane
89'
A. Austevoll

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Bjarg 2–1 Sandnes Ulf II

Bjarg beat Sandnes Ulf II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on June 11, 2022.

Goals: J. Brune Aune (35'), M. Eiane (41'), A. Austevoll (89').

The match was played at Stavollen stadion in Fanahammaren.