Sandi 1–2 Freeport: Result & Stats

Sandi

FT

1 – 2

Freeport

1/29/2023

LFA First Division · Round 14Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sandi32%

×Draw24%

Freeport44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SandiExpected goals in this matchFreeport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.66

Sandi

1.37

Freeport

1.66

Freeport creates 21% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 75 away

1.12

creates per match

1.31

2.00

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Sandi

1.12

Freeport

1.31

allows per match

Sandi

2.00

Freeport

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandi+0.00on par

Freeport+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandi ↓

Freeport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sandi or draw

56%

Sandi or Freeport

76%

Draw or Freeport

68%

Winning margin

Sandi wins by 2+

14%

Freeport wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Sandi 1+ goals

75%

Sandi 2+ goals

40%

Sandi 3+ goals

16%

Freeport 1+ goals

81%

Freeport 2+ goals

49%

Freeport 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Sandi (draw refunded)

42%

Freeport (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandi at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.00 · 25 matches

Freeport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.61 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandi attack 1.12 + Freeport defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.37

Freeport attack 1.31 + Sandi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sandi scores more

32%

level

24%

Freeport scores more

44%

Freeport at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Freeport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff