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Freeport vs Sandi — LFA First Division 2020

Freeport
Freeport
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Sandi
Sandi
9/4/2022LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 1TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Freeport53%
×Draw21%
Sandi26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freeport
2.05
Sandi
1.39

Freeport creates 47% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 23 away

creates per match

Freeport
1.50
Sandi
0.96

allows per match

Freeport
1.82
Sandi
2.61

finishing

Freeport+0.00on par
Sandi+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freeport ↓

Sandi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Freeport or draw
74%
Freeport or Sandi
79%
Draw or Sandi
47%

Winning margin

Freeport wins by 2+
31%
Sandi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Freeport 1+ goals
87%
Freeport 2+ goals
61%
Freeport 3+ goals
33%
Sandi 1+ goals
75%
Sandi 2+ goals
40%
Sandi 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Freeport (draw refunded)
67%
Sandi (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freeport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

Sandi away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freeport attack 1.50 + Sandi defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.05

Sandi attack 0.96 + Freeport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Freeport scores more
53%
level
21%
Sandi scores more
26%

Freeport at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Freeport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Freeport vs Sandi

Sandi beat Freeport 4-1 in LFA First Division on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at TUSA Sport Field in Monrovia.