Sandhausen U19 5–0 Saarbrücken U19: Result & Stats

Sandhausen U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Saarbrücken U19

D. Maraj 89', 68'

L. Gamer 46'

J. Waldmann 11' (pen), 1'

11/23/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 12Walter-Reinhard-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Sandhausen U1957%

×Draw19%

Saarbrücken U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sandhausen U19Expected goals in this matchSaarbrücken U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.54

Sandhausen U19

2.42

Saarbrücken U19

1.54

Sandhausen U19 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 37 away

1.87

creates per match

1.19

1.89

allows per match

2.97

creates per match

Sandhausen U19

1.87

Saarbrücken U19

1.19

allows per match

Sandhausen U19

1.89

Saarbrücken U19

2.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandhausen U19+0.00on par

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandhausen U19 ↓

Saarbrücken U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Sandhausen U19 or draw

76%

Sandhausen U19 or Saarbrücken U19

81%

Draw or Saarbrücken U19

43%

Winning margin

Sandhausen U19 wins by 2+

36%

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sandhausen U19 1+ goals

91%

Sandhausen U19 2+ goals

69%

Sandhausen U19 3+ goals

43%

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

79%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

45%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Sandhausen U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandhausen U19 at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

Saarbrücken U19 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandhausen U19 attack 1.87 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.42

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.19 + Sandhausen U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sandhausen U19 scores more

57%

level

19%

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

24%

Sandhausen U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sandhausen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

J. Waldmann

11'

J. WaldmannPenalty

46'

L. Gamer

58'

D. Villiers← V. Siontis

64'

D. Maraj← A. Malaj

64'

B. Erdogan← L. Strewenski

64'

N. Dincher← A. Dos Santos Reis

68'

D. Maraj

71'

P. Kiriazis← A. Shala

71'

S. Zulum← J. Waldmann

71'

T. Wiesendanger← D. Radis

81'

K. Riffel← M. Blinn

81'

L. Werth← E. Erdogan

81'

M. Seitzer← F. Rupp

81'

P. Wallacher← N. Krämer

89'

D. Maraj

Sandhausen

Saarbrücken

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

Waldmann

▼

Malaj

Manager: I. Erceg

58'▲D. Villiers←▼V. Siontis

64'▲D. Maraj←▼A. Malaj

71'▲P. Kiriazis←▼A. Shala

71'▲S. Zulum←▼J. Waldmann

71'▲T. Wiesendanger←▼D. Radis

Sandhausen U19 substitutes

VilliersMarajKiriazisZulumWiesendangerBelachemiLoos

Manager: S. D`Andrea

64'▲B. Erdogan←▼L. Strewenski

64'▲N. Dincher←▼A. Dos Santos Reis

81'▲K. Riffel←▼M. Blinn

81'▲L. Werth←▼E. Erdogan

81'▲M. Seitzer←▼F. Rupp

81'▲P. Wallacher←▼N. Krämer

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

ErdoganDincherRiffelWerthSeitzerWallacherMees