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Saarbrücken U19 vs Sandhausen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Saarbrücken U19
Saarbrücken U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sandhausen U19
Sandhausen U19
11/22/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 12FC Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Saarbrücken U1936%
×Draw21%
Sandhausen U1943%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saarbrücken U19
1.83
Sandhausen U19
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Saarbrücken U19
1.21
Sandhausen U19
1.55

allows per match

Saarbrücken U19
2.45
Sandhausen U19
2.45

finishing

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par
Sandhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saarbrücken U19 ↓

Sandhausen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Saarbrücken U19 or draw
57%
Saarbrücken U19 or Sandhausen U19
79%
Draw or Sandhausen U19
64%

Winning margin

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+
19%
Sandhausen U19 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals
84%
Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals
54%
Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals
28%
Sandhausen U19 1+ goals
86%
Sandhausen U19 2+ goals
59%
Sandhausen U19 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)
46%
Sandhausen U19 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saarbrücken U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 38 matches

Sandhausen U19 away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.21 + Sandhausen U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.83

Sandhausen U19 attack 1.55 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Saarbrücken U19 scores more
36%
level
21%
Sandhausen U19 scores more
43%

Sandhausen U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sandhausen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Saarbrücken
Sandhausen
S. D`Andrea
Manager: S. D`Andrea
I. Erceg
Manager: I. Erceg

Match Recap: Saarbrücken U19 vs Sandhausen U19

Sandhausen U19 beat Saarbrücken U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on November 22, 2025.

The match was played at FC Sportfeld in Saarbrücken.