Sandhausen U19 2–3 1860 München U19: Result & Stats

Sandhausen U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

1860 München U19

A. Sivic 43'

Y. Outman 3'

M. Gevorgyan 88' (pen), 83' (pen)

L. Azambuja 63'

4/14/2024

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 22Walter-Reinhard-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sandhausen U1943%

×Draw21%

1860 München U1936%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sandhausen U19Expected goals in this match1860 München U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.79

Sandhausen U19

1.98

1860 München U19

1.79

Sandhausen U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 54 away

1.87

creates per match

1.70

1.89

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Sandhausen U19

1.87

1860 München U19

1.70

allows per match

Sandhausen U19

1.89

1860 München U19

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandhausen U19+0.00on par

1860 München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandhausen U19 ↓

1860 München U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Sandhausen U19 or draw

64%

Sandhausen U19 or 1860 München U19

79%

Draw or 1860 München U19

57%

Winning margin

Sandhausen U19 wins by 2+

24%

1860 München U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Sandhausen U19 1+ goals

86%

Sandhausen U19 2+ goals

59%

Sandhausen U19 3+ goals

31%

1860 München U19 1+ goals

83%

1860 München U19 2+ goals

53%

1860 München U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Sandhausen U19 (draw refunded)

55%

1860 München U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandhausen U19 at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

1860 München U19 away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.09 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandhausen U19 attack 1.87 + 1860 München U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.98

1860 München U19 attack 1.70 + Sandhausen U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sandhausen U19 scores more

43%

level

21%

1860 München U19 scores more

36%

Sandhausen U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sandhausen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Y. Outman

43'

A. Sivic

46'

E. Duran← M. Roithmayr

54'

L. Azambuja← L. Faßmann

63'

69'

78'

78'

83'

M. GevorgyanPenalty

84'

A. Malaj← F. Binder

88'

M. GevorgyanPenalty

90+2'

D. Avdić← C. Leone

90+3'

Pieter van Panhuys← R. Ott

Sandhausen

1860

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Outman

▼

Çeken

⚽

Sivic

Manager: A. Philipp

69'▲I. Okwubor←▼B. Çeken

78'▲F. Derick←▼D. Maraj

78'▲V. Hofer←▼Y. Outman

84'▲A. Malaj←▼F. Binder

Sandhausen U19 substitutes

OkwuborDerickHoferMalajAgbozoFuchsWiesendanger

Manager: J. Schittenhelm

46'▲E. Duran←▼M. Roithmayr

54'▲L. Azambuja←▼L. Faßmann

90+2'▲D. Avdić←▼C. Leone

90+3'▲Pieter van Panhuys←▼R. Ott

1860 München U19 substitutes

DuranAzambujaAvdićPanhuysQela

Match Recap: Sandhausen U19 vs 1860 München U19

1860 München U19 beat Sandhausen U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on April 14, 2024.

Goals: Y. Outman (3'), A. Sivic (43'), L. Azambuja (63'), M. Gevorgyan (83' pen, 88' pen).

The match was played at Walter-Reinhard-Stadion in Sandhausen.

Sandhausen U19 vs 1860 München U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sandhausen U19 vs 1860 München U19