1860 München U19 2–4 Sandhausen U19: Result & Stats

1860 München U19

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Sandhausen U19

M. Gevorgyan 53'

R. Ott 7'

D. Lokaj 90+3'

I. Okwubor 86'

A. Sivic 69' (pen)

N. Klose 1' (OG)

10/29/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 9Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Platz 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

1860 München U1949%

×Draw21%

Sandhausen U1929%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1860 München U19Expected goals in this matchSandhausen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.59

1860 München U19

2.10

Sandhausen U19

1.59

1860 München U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 38 away

1.76

creates per match

1.55

1.64

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

1860 München U19

1.76

Sandhausen U19

1.55

allows per match

1860 München U19

1.64

Sandhausen U19

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1860 München U19+0.00on par

Sandhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1860 München U19 ↓

Sandhausen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

1860 München U19 or draw

71%

1860 München U19 or Sandhausen U19

79%

Draw or Sandhausen U19

51%

Winning margin

1860 München U19 wins by 2+

29%

Sandhausen U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

1860 München U19 1+ goals

88%

1860 München U19 2+ goals

62%

1860 München U19 3+ goals

35%

Sandhausen U19 1+ goals

80%

Sandhausen U19 2+ goals

47%

Sandhausen U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

1860 München U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Sandhausen U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1860 München U19 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

Sandhausen U19 away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1860 München U19 attack 1.76 + Sandhausen U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.10

Sandhausen U19 attack 1.55 + 1860 München U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

1860 München U19 scores more

49%

level

21%

Sandhausen U19 scores more

29%

1860 München U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "1860 München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

N. KloseOwn goal

7'

R. Ott

53'

M. Gevorgyan

56'

I. Okwubor← V. Hofer

56'

P. Skowronnek← I. Kaiser

56'

T. Wiesendanger← Y. Outman

69'

R. Gosalci← C. Leone

69'

A. SivicPenalty

83'

M. Roithmayr← R. Ott

83'

M. Zimmermann← M. Gevorgyan

83'

86'

87'

89'

90+3'

1860

Sandhausen

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Gevorgyan

▼

Garza

Kiefersau

⚽

▼

Ott

Dumitru

🥅

▼

Klose

Manager: J. Schittenhelm

69'▲R. Gosalci←▼C. Leone

83'▲M. Roithmayr←▼R. Ott

83'▲M. Zimmermann←▼M. Gevorgyan

83'▲S. Althaus←▼N. Klose

87'▲E. Dursun←▼A. Garza

1860 München U19 substitutes

GosalciRoithmayrZimmermannAlthausDursunDrobnýKlose

Manager: A. Philipp

56'▲I. Okwubor←▼V. Hofer

56'▲P. Skowronnek←▼I. Kaiser

56'▲T. Wiesendanger←▼Y. Outman

89'▲J. Agbozo←▼A. Alagi

Sandhausen U19 substitutes

OkwuborSkowronnekWiesendangerAgbozoDerickWaldmannSchmidt

Match Recap: 1860 München U19 vs Sandhausen U19

Sandhausen U19 beat 1860 München U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on October 29, 2023.

Goals: N. Klose (1' o.g.), R. Ott (7'), M. Gevorgyan (53'), A. Sivic (69' pen), I. Okwubor (86'), D. Lokaj (90+3').

The match was played at Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Platz 5 in München.

1860 München U19 vs Sandhausen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: 1860 München U19 vs Sandhausen U19