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Sandhausen II vs Oberachern — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Sandhausen II
Sandhausen II
CANC
13:30
Oberachern
Oberachern
5/22/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 37Walter-Reinhard-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sandhausen II32%
×Draw21%
Oberachern47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandhausen II
1.71
Oberachern
2.10

Oberachern creates 23% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 92 away

creates per match

Sandhausen II
1.67
Oberachern
1.38

allows per match

Sandhausen II
2.83
Oberachern
1.74

finishing

Sandhausen II+0.00on par
Oberachern+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandhausen II ↓

Oberachern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Sandhausen II or draw
53%
Sandhausen II or Oberachern
79%
Draw or Oberachern
68%

Winning margin

Sandhausen II wins by 2+
16%
Oberachern wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Sandhausen II 1+ goals
82%
Sandhausen II 2+ goals
51%
Sandhausen II 3+ goals
24%
Oberachern 1+ goals
88%
Oberachern 2+ goals
62%
Oberachern 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Sandhausen II (draw refunded)
40%
Oberachern (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandhausen II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Oberachern away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.74 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandhausen II attack 1.67 + Oberachern defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.71

Oberachern attack 1.38 + Sandhausen II defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sandhausen II scores more
32%
level
21%
Oberachern scores more
47%

Oberachern at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Oberachern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sandhausen II vs Oberachern — Match Preview

Sandhausen II face Oberachern on May 22, 2021 in this Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sandhausen II host Oberachern at Walter-Reinhard-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.