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Oberachern vs Sandhausen II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Oberachern
Oberachern
CANC
14:30
Sandhausen II
Sandhausen II
11/14/2020Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 16Waldsportplatz Oberachern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Oberachern48%
×Draw22%
Sandhausen II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberachern
1.95
Sandhausen II
1.50

Oberachern creates 30% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 6 away

creates per match

Oberachern
1.73
Sandhausen II
1.33

allows per match

Oberachern
1.66
Sandhausen II
2.17

finishing

Oberachern+0.00on par
Sandhausen II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberachern ↓

Sandhausen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Oberachern or draw
70%
Oberachern or Sandhausen II
78%
Draw or Sandhausen II
52%

Winning margin

Oberachern wins by 2+
27%
Sandhausen II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Oberachern 1+ goals
86%
Oberachern 2+ goals
58%
Oberachern 3+ goals
31%
Sandhausen II 1+ goals
78%
Sandhausen II 2+ goals
44%
Sandhausen II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Oberachern (draw refunded)
62%
Sandhausen II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberachern at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

Sandhausen II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberachern attack 1.73 + Sandhausen II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.95

Sandhausen II attack 1.33 + Oberachern defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Oberachern scores more
48%
level
22%
Sandhausen II scores more
30%

Oberachern at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Oberachern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberachern face Sandhausen II (Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg)

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg returns with Oberachern hosting Sandhausen II. Match starts November 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Oberachern host Sandhausen II at Waldsportplatz Oberachern.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.