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Sandhausen II vs Neckarsulmer SU — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Sandhausen II
Sandhausen II
FT
0 – 1
Neckarsulmer SU
Neckarsulmer SU
9/5/2020Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 4Walter-Reinhard-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sandhausen II33%
×Draw21%
Neckarsulmer SU46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandhausen II
1.71
Neckarsulmer SU
2.04

Neckarsulmer SU creates 19% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 42 away

creates per match

Sandhausen II
1.67
Neckarsulmer SU
1.24

allows per match

Sandhausen II
2.83
Neckarsulmer SU
1.76

finishing

Sandhausen II+0.00on par
Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandhausen II ↓

Neckarsulmer SU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sandhausen II or draw
54%
Sandhausen II or Neckarsulmer SU
79%
Draw or Neckarsulmer SU
67%

Winning margin

Sandhausen II wins by 2+
16%
Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Sandhausen II 1+ goals
82%
Sandhausen II 2+ goals
51%
Sandhausen II 3+ goals
24%
Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals
87%
Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals
60%
Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Sandhausen II (draw refunded)
42%
Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandhausen II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Neckarsulmer SU away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandhausen II attack 1.67 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.71

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.24 + Sandhausen II defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sandhausen II scores more
33%
level
21%
Neckarsulmer SU scores more
46%

Neckarsulmer SU at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Neckarsulmer SU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sandhausen II vs Neckarsulmer SU

Neckarsulmer SU beat Sandhausen II 1-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Walter-Reinhard-Stadion in Sandhausen.