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Neckarsulmer SU vs Sandhausen II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Neckarsulmer SU
Neckarsulmer SU
CANC
17:00
Sandhausen II
Sandhausen II
4/1/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 26Sportpark Pichterich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Neckarsulmer SU46%
×Draw23%
Sandhausen II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neckarsulmer SU
1.82
Sandhausen II
1.47

Neckarsulmer SU creates 24% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 6 away

creates per match

Neckarsulmer SU
1.47
Sandhausen II
1.33

allows per match

Neckarsulmer SU
1.60
Sandhausen II
2.17

finishing

Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par
Sandhausen II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neckarsulmer SU ↓

Sandhausen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Neckarsulmer SU or draw
69%
Neckarsulmer SU or Sandhausen II
77%
Draw or Sandhausen II
54%

Winning margin

Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+
25%
Sandhausen II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals
84%
Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals
54%
Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals
27%
Sandhausen II 1+ goals
77%
Sandhausen II 2+ goals
43%
Sandhausen II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)
59%
Sandhausen II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neckarsulmer SU at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Sandhausen II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.47 + Sandhausen II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.82

Sandhausen II attack 1.33 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Neckarsulmer SU scores more
46%
level
23%
Sandhausen II scores more
31%

Neckarsulmer SU at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Neckarsulmer SU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Neckarsulmer SU vs Sandhausen II — Match Preview

Neckarsulmer SU face Sandhausen II on April 1, 2021 in this Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Neckarsulmer SU host Sandhausen II at Sportpark Pichterich.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.