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Sandhausen II vs Göppinger SV — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Sandhausen II
Sandhausen II
CANC
13:00
Göppinger SV
Göppinger SV
3/27/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 25Walter-Reinhard-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sandhausen II28%
×Draw21%
Göppinger SV51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandhausen II
1.57
Göppinger SV
2.16

Göppinger SV creates 38% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 76 away

creates per match

Sandhausen II
1.67
Göppinger SV
1.49

allows per match

Sandhausen II
2.83
Göppinger SV
1.47

finishing

Sandhausen II+0.00on par
Göppinger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandhausen II ↓

Göppinger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Sandhausen II or draw
49%
Sandhausen II or Göppinger SV
79%
Draw or Göppinger SV
72%

Winning margin

Sandhausen II wins by 2+
13%
Göppinger SV wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Sandhausen II 1+ goals
79%
Sandhausen II 2+ goals
46%
Sandhausen II 3+ goals
21%
Göppinger SV 1+ goals
88%
Göppinger SV 2+ goals
63%
Göppinger SV 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Sandhausen II (draw refunded)
36%
Göppinger SV (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandhausen II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Göppinger SV away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.47 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandhausen II attack 1.67 + Göppinger SV defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.57

Göppinger SV attack 1.49 + Sandhausen II defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sandhausen II scores more
28%
level
21%
Göppinger SV scores more
51%

Göppinger SV at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Göppinger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sandhausen II face Göppinger SV (Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg)

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg returns with Sandhausen II hosting Göppinger SV. Match starts March 27, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sandhausen II host Göppinger SV at Walter-Reinhard-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.