Göppinger SV 0–1 Sandhausen II: Result & Stats

Göppinger SV

FT

0 – 1

Sandhausen II

9/12/2020

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 5Stadion SV Göppingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Göppinger SV56%

×Draw21%

Sandhausen II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Göppinger SVExpected goals in this matchSandhausen II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.30

Göppinger SV

2.11

Sandhausen II

1.30

Göppinger SV creates 62% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 6 away

2.05

creates per match

1.33

1.27

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Göppinger SV

2.05

Sandhausen II

1.33

allows per match

Göppinger SV

1.27

Sandhausen II

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Göppinger SV+0.00on par

Sandhausen II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göppinger SV ↓

Sandhausen II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Göppinger SV or draw

77%

Göppinger SV or Sandhausen II

79%

Draw or Sandhausen II

44%

Winning margin

Göppinger SV wins by 2+

34%

Sandhausen II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Göppinger SV 1+ goals

88%

Göppinger SV 2+ goals

62%

Göppinger SV 3+ goals

35%

Sandhausen II 1+ goals

73%

Sandhausen II 2+ goals

37%

Sandhausen II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Göppinger SV (draw refunded)

71%

Sandhausen II (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göppinger SV at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.27 · 77 matches

Sandhausen II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göppinger SV attack 2.05 + Sandhausen II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.11

Sandhausen II attack 1.33 + Göppinger SV defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Göppinger SV scores more

56%

level

21%

Sandhausen II scores more

23%

Göppinger SV at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Göppinger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff