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Sandhausen II vs CFR Pforzheim — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Sandhausen II
Sandhausen II
CANC
13:00
CFR Pforzheim
CFR Pforzheim
2/27/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sandhausen II27%
×Draw20%
CFR Pforzheim53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandhausen II
1.60
CFR Pforzheim
2.27

CFR Pforzheim creates 42% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 93 away

creates per match

Sandhausen II
1.67
CFR Pforzheim
1.71

allows per match

Sandhausen II
2.83
CFR Pforzheim
1.53

finishing

Sandhausen II+0.00on par
CFR Pforzheim+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandhausen II ↓

CFR Pforzheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Sandhausen II or draw
47%
Sandhausen II or CFR Pforzheim
80%
Draw or CFR Pforzheim
73%

Winning margin

Sandhausen II wins by 2+
13%
CFR Pforzheim wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Sandhausen II 1+ goals
80%
Sandhausen II 2+ goals
47%
Sandhausen II 3+ goals
22%
CFR Pforzheim 1+ goals
90%
CFR Pforzheim 2+ goals
66%
CFR Pforzheim 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Sandhausen II (draw refunded)
34%
CFR Pforzheim (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandhausen II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

CFR Pforzheim away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.53 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandhausen II attack 1.67 + CFR Pforzheim defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

CFR Pforzheim attack 1.71 + Sandhausen II defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sandhausen II scores more
27%
level
20%
CFR Pforzheim scores more
53%

CFR Pforzheim at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "CFR Pforzheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sandhausen II vs CFR Pforzheim — Match Preview

Sandhausen II face CFR Pforzheim on February 27, 2021 in this Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.