Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CFR Pforzheim vs Sandhausen II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

CFR Pforzheim
CFR Pforzheim
CANC
13:30
Sandhausen II
Sandhausen II
6/12/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 42Stadion im Brötzinger Tal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

CFR Pforzheim58%
×Draw20%
Sandhausen II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CFR Pforzheim
2.28
Sandhausen II
1.36

CFR Pforzheim creates 68% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 6 away

creates per match

CFR Pforzheim
2.39
Sandhausen II
1.33

allows per match

CFR Pforzheim
1.39
Sandhausen II
2.17

finishing

CFR Pforzheim+0.00on par
Sandhausen II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR Pforzheim ↓

Sandhausen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

CFR Pforzheim or draw
78%
CFR Pforzheim or Sandhausen II
80%
Draw or Sandhausen II
42%

Winning margin

CFR Pforzheim wins by 2+
36%
Sandhausen II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CFR Pforzheim 1+ goals
90%
CFR Pforzheim 2+ goals
66%
CFR Pforzheim 3+ goals
39%
Sandhausen II 1+ goals
74%
Sandhausen II 2+ goals
39%
Sandhausen II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

CFR Pforzheim (draw refunded)
72%
Sandhausen II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR Pforzheim at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.39 · 93 matches

Sandhausen II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR Pforzheim attack 2.39 + Sandhausen II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.28

Sandhausen II attack 1.33 + CFR Pforzheim defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

CFR Pforzheim scores more
58%
level
20%
Sandhausen II scores more
22%

CFR Pforzheim at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CFR Pforzheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: CFR Pforzheim host Sandhausen II

June 12, 2021: CFR Pforzheim take on Sandhausen II in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

CFR Pforzheim host Sandhausen II at Stadion im Brötzinger Tal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.