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Sandhausen II vs Bruchsal — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Sandhausen II
Sandhausen II
CANC
12:00
Bruchsal
Bruchsal
4/10/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 28Walter-Reinhard-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sandhausen II42%
×Draw20%
Bruchsal38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandhausen II
2.27
Bruchsal
2.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 25 away

creates per match

Sandhausen II
1.67
Bruchsal
1.48

allows per match

Sandhausen II
2.83
Bruchsal
2.88

finishing

Sandhausen II+0.00on par
Bruchsal+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandhausen II ↓

Bruchsal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Sandhausen II or draw
62%
Sandhausen II or Bruchsal
80%
Draw or Bruchsal
58%

Winning margin

Sandhausen II wins by 2+
24%
Bruchsal wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sandhausen II 1+ goals
90%
Sandhausen II 2+ goals
66%
Sandhausen II 3+ goals
39%
Bruchsal 1+ goals
88%
Bruchsal 2+ goals
63%
Bruchsal 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Sandhausen II (draw refunded)
52%
Bruchsal (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandhausen II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Bruchsal away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.88 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandhausen II attack 1.67 + Bruchsal defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.27

Bruchsal attack 1.48 + Sandhausen II defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sandhausen II scores more
42%
level
20%
Bruchsal scores more
38%

Sandhausen II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sandhausen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sandhausen II face Bruchsal (Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg)

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg returns with Sandhausen II hosting Bruchsal. Match starts April 10, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sandhausen II host Bruchsal at Walter-Reinhard-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.