Bruchsal 4–1 Sandhausen II: Result & Stats

Bruchsal

FT

4 – 1

Sandhausen II

9/19/2020

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 7Städtisches Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bruchsal40%

×Draw22%

Sandhausen II38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BruchsalExpected goals in this matchSandhausen II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.73

Bruchsal

1.77

Sandhausen II

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 6 away

1.38

creates per match

1.33

2.13

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Bruchsal

1.38

Sandhausen II

1.33

allows per match

Bruchsal

2.13

Sandhausen II

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bruchsal+0.00on par

Sandhausen II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bruchsal ↓

Sandhausen II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Bruchsal or draw

62%

Bruchsal or Sandhausen II

78%

Draw or Sandhausen II

60%

Winning margin

Bruchsal wins by 2+

21%

Sandhausen II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Bruchsal 1+ goals

83%

Bruchsal 2+ goals

53%

Bruchsal 3+ goals

26%

Sandhausen II 1+ goals

82%

Sandhausen II 2+ goals

52%

Sandhausen II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Bruchsal (draw refunded)

51%

Sandhausen II (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bruchsal at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.13 · 24 matches

Sandhausen II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bruchsal attack 1.38 + Sandhausen II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sandhausen II attack 1.33 + Bruchsal defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bruchsal scores more

40%

level

22%

Sandhausen II scores more

38%

Bruchsal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bruchsal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff