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Sandhausen II vs Backnang — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Sandhausen II
Sandhausen II
CANC
13:30
Backnang
Backnang
6/6/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 41Walter-Reinhard-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sandhausen II31%
×Draw21%
Backnang48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandhausen II
1.75
Backnang
2.20

Backnang creates 26% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 93 away

creates per match

Sandhausen II
1.67
Backnang
1.57

allows per match

Sandhausen II
2.83
Backnang
1.82

finishing

Sandhausen II+0.00on par
Backnang+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandhausen II ↓

Backnang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Sandhausen II or draw
52%
Sandhausen II or Backnang
79%
Draw or Backnang
69%

Winning margin

Sandhausen II wins by 2+
15%
Backnang wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Sandhausen II 1+ goals
83%
Sandhausen II 2+ goals
52%
Sandhausen II 3+ goals
25%
Backnang 1+ goals
89%
Backnang 2+ goals
64%
Backnang 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Sandhausen II (draw refunded)
39%
Backnang (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandhausen II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Backnang away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.82 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandhausen II attack 1.67 + Backnang defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.75

Backnang attack 1.57 + Sandhausen II defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sandhausen II scores more
31%
level
21%
Backnang scores more
48%

Backnang at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Backnang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sandhausen II host Backnang

June 6, 2021: Sandhausen II take on Backnang in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sandhausen II host Backnang at Walter-Reinhard-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.