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Backnang vs Sandhausen II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Backnang
Backnang
CANC
13:00
Sandhausen II
Sandhausen II
12/12/2020Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 20Etzwiesenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Backnang49%
×Draw22%
Sandhausen II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Backnang
2.01
Sandhausen II
1.52

Backnang creates 32% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 6 away

creates per match

Backnang
1.85
Sandhausen II
1.33

allows per match

Backnang
1.71
Sandhausen II
2.17

finishing

Backnang+0.00on par
Sandhausen II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Backnang ↓

Sandhausen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Backnang or draw
71%
Backnang or Sandhausen II
78%
Draw or Sandhausen II
51%

Winning margin

Backnang wins by 2+
28%
Sandhausen II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Backnang 1+ goals
87%
Backnang 2+ goals
59%
Backnang 3+ goals
32%
Sandhausen II 1+ goals
78%
Sandhausen II 2+ goals
45%
Sandhausen II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Backnang (draw refunded)
63%
Sandhausen II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Backnang at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.71 · 93 matches

Sandhausen II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Backnang attack 1.85 + Sandhausen II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.01

Sandhausen II attack 1.33 + Backnang defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Backnang scores more
49%
level
22%
Sandhausen II scores more
29%

Backnang at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Backnang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Backnang face Sandhausen II (Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg)

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg returns with Backnang hosting Sandhausen II. Match starts December 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Backnang host Sandhausen II at Etzwiesenstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.