Sandefjord 1–0 Bryne: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Sandefjord

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bryne

J. Dunsby 79'

10/4/2025

Eliteserien · Round 24Jotun Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Sandefjord48%

×Draw25%

Bryne26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SandefjordExpected goals in this matchBryne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.08

Sandefjord

1.56

Bryne

1.08

Sandefjord creates 44% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 11 away

1.37

creates per match

0.91

1.25

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Sandefjord

1.37

Bryne

0.91

allows per match

Sandefjord

1.25

Bryne

1.76

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Sandefjord+0.26scores more

Bryne+0.09on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandefjord ↓

Bryne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sandefjord or draw

74%

Sandefjord or Bryne

75%

Draw or Bryne

52%

Winning margin

Sandefjord wins by 2+

25%

Bryne wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sandefjord 1+ goals

79%

Sandefjord 2+ goals

46%

Sandefjord 3+ goals

21%

Bryne 1+ goals

66%

Bryne 2+ goals

29%

Bryne 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sandefjord (draw refunded)

65%

Bryne (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandefjord at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.25 · 27 matches

Bryne away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.76 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandefjord attack 1.37 + Bryne defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bryne attack 0.91 + Sandefjord defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sandefjord scores more

48%

level

25%

Bryne scores more

26%

Sandefjord at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sandefjord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

F. Ottosson

Sandefjord · M

8.2

Match Events

47'

Sanel Bojadžić

57'

M. Grodem← D. Moreira

68'

A. Scriven← R. Thellufsen

71'

V. Egeli← E. Patoulidis

79'

J. Dunsby↳ R. Dzabic

87'

C. Landu-Landu← L. Qvigstad

87'

J. Gregersen← H. Larsen

87'

K. Haland← L. Sodal

89'

J. Hanstad← C. Cheng

89'

S. Mathisen← R. Dzabic

90+2'

M. Gjone← E. Pettersen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SandefjordBryne

Overview

56%Possession44%

13Total Shots7

1.23Expected Goals (xG)0.44

4Corners3

16Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots7

3On Target1

8Off Target4

2Blocked2

11Inside Box4

2Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

503Total Passes397

416Accurate Passes306

83%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls16

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2