Sandefjord 0–3 Brann: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Sandefjord

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Brann

E. Kornvig 66'

A. van der Spa 56' (OG)

N. Castro 13' (pen)

9/20/2025

Eliteserien · Round 22Jotun Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Sandefjord33%

×Draw25%

Brann43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SandefjordExpected goals in this matchBrann

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.56

Sandefjord

1.33

Brann

1.56

Brann creates 17% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

1.23

creates per match

1.55

1.57

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Sandefjord

1.23

Brann

1.55

allows per match

Sandefjord

1.57

Brann

1.43

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

Sandefjord+0.20scores more

Brann+0.31scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandefjord ↓

Brann →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sandefjord or draw

57%

Sandefjord or Brann

75%

Draw or Brann

67%

Winning margin

Sandefjord wins by 2+

14%

Brann wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Sandefjord 1+ goals

74%

Sandefjord 2+ goals

38%

Sandefjord 3+ goals

15%

Brann 1+ goals

79%

Brann 2+ goals

46%

Brann 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Sandefjord (draw refunded)

43%

Brann (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandefjord at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Brann away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandefjord attack 1.23 + Brann defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Brann attack 1.55 + Sandefjord defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sandefjord scores more

33%

level

25%

Brann scores more

43%

Brann at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Dyngeland

Brann · G

8.5

Match Events

13'

N. CastroPenalty

42'

Thore Baardsen Pedersen

45+4'

Martin Gjone

45+3'

Martin GjoneCard upgrade

46'

A. van der Spa← R. Dzabic

46'

D. De Roeve← T. Pedersen

50'

Jacob Lungi Sørensen

56'

A. van der SpaOwn goal

61'

N. Holm← N. Castro

66'

E. Kornvig↳ D. De Roeve

71'

E. Pettersen← L. Mettler

71'

J. Hanstad← J. Dunsby

71'

S. Mathisen← S. I. Sigurdarson

72'

B. Finne← S. Magnusson

72'

M. Sande← J. Sorensen

78'

M. Hansen← U. Mathisen

90+2'

B. Berntsen← E. Patoulidis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SandefjordBrann

Overview

42%Possession58%

11Total Shots14

1.14Expected Goals (xG)2.43

4Corners6

14Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots14

6On Target5

3Off Target7

2Blocked2

4Inside Box11

7Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

401Total Passes555

324Accurate Passes488

81%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides3

Match Recap: Sandefjord vs Brann

Brann beat Sandefjord 3-0 in Eliteserien on September 20, 2025.

Goals: N. Castro (13' pen), A. van der Spa (56' o.g.), E. Kornvig (66').

Brann controlled possession (58%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Jotun Arena in Sandefjord.

Sandefjord vs Brann — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sandefjord vs Brann