Brann 2–1 Sandefjord: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Brann

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sandefjord

E. Kornvig 61'

B. Finne 51'

S. Mathisen 90+5'

5/16/2024

Eliteserien · Round 8Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Brann56%

×Draw21%

Sandefjord22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrannExpected goals in this matchSandefjord

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.21

Brann

2.04

Sandefjord

1.21

Brann creates 69% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 21 away

2.24

creates per match

1.38

1.03

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Brann

2.24

Sandefjord

1.38

allows per match

Brann

1.03

Sandefjord

1.84

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Brann-0.24scores less

Sandefjord+0.05on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Sandefjord →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Brann or draw

78%

Brann or Sandefjord

79%

Draw or Sandefjord

44%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+

34%

Sandefjord wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals

87%

Brann 2+ goals

60%

Brann 3+ goals

33%

Sandefjord 1+ goals

70%

Sandefjord 2+ goals

34%

Sandefjord 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)

72%

Sandefjord (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.03 · 7 matches

Sandefjord away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.84 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.24 + Sandefjord defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.04

Sandefjord attack 1.38 + Brann defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Brann scores more

56%

level

21%

Sandefjord scores more

22%

Brann at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Kornvig

Brann · M

7.9

Match Events

46'

B. Finne← A. Heggebø

51'

B. Finne↳ R. Kristiansen

57'

Emil Kornvig

61'

E. Kornvig↳ N. Castro

63'

A. Damnjanovic Nilsson← L. Mettler

63'

Danilo Al Saed← J. Dunsby

63'

S. Mørk← Simon Amin

75'

Aleksander Nilsson

78'

U. Mathisen← O. Didrik Blomberg

81'

Eman Marković

86'

J. Soltvedt← F. Knudsen

90+1'

Fredrik Carson Pedersen

90'

M. Warming← N. Castro

90'

S. Kartum← E. Kornvig

90'

S. Mathisen← E. Marković

90'

B. Mvuka← A. Tveter

90+5'

S. Mathisen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrannSandefjord

Overview

63%Possession37%

17Total Shots12

2.08Expected Goals (xG)1.61

6Corners3

10Fouls16

Shots

17Total Shots12

6On Target5

5Off Target3

6Blocked4

14Inside Box5

3Outside Box7

Passing

63%Possession37%

584Total Passes337

506Accurate Passes253

87%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

5Offsides2

Match Recap: Brann vs Sandefjord

Brann beat Sandefjord 2-1 in Eliteserien on May 16, 2024.

Goals: B. Finne (51'), E. Kornvig (61'), S. Mathisen (90+5').

Brann controlled possession (63%) and registered 17 shots to 12.

The match was played at Brann Stadion in Bergen.

Brann vs Sandefjord — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Brann vs Sandefjord