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Sandefjord II vs Donn — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Sandefjord II
Sandefjord II
FT
6 – 1
Donn
Donn
4/17/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 2Gamle Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sandefjord II69%
×Draw14%
Donn17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandefjord II
3.62
Donn
1.83

Sandefjord II creates 98% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sandefjord II
2.62
Donn
1.54

allows per match

Sandefjord II
2.12
Donn
4.62

finishing

Sandefjord II+0.00on par
Donn+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandefjord II ↓

Donn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–26%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Sandefjord II or draw
83%
Sandefjord II or Donn
86%
Draw or Donn
31%

Winning margin

Sandefjord II wins by 2+
51%
Donn wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sandefjord II 1+ goals
97%
Sandefjord II 2+ goals
87%
Sandefjord II 3+ goals
68%
Donn 1+ goals
84%
Donn 2+ goals
54%
Donn 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Sandefjord II (draw refunded)
80%
Donn (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandefjord II at home — creates 2.62, concedes 2.12 · 26 matches

Donn away — creates 1.54, concedes 4.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandefjord II attack 2.62 + Donn defence 4.62 → ÷2 → 3.62

Donn attack 1.54 + Sandefjord II defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Sandefjord II scores more
69%
level
14%
Donn scores more
17%

Sandefjord II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Sandefjord II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Sandefjord II 6–1 Donn

Sandefjord II beat Donn 6-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on April 17, 2023.

The match was played at Gamle Stadion in Sandefjord.