Donn 3–2 Sandefjord II: Result & Stats

Donn

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sandefjord II

10/9/2023

3. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 23Kristiansand Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Donn44%

×Draw21%

Sandefjord II35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DonnExpected goals in this matchSandefjord II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.89

Donn

2.12

Sandefjord II

1.89

Donn creates 12% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

1.38

creates per match

1.69

2.08

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Donn

1.38

Sandefjord II

1.69

allows per match

Donn

2.08

Sandefjord II

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Donn+0.00on par

Sandefjord II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donn ↓

Sandefjord II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Donn or draw

65%

Donn or Sandefjord II

79%

Draw or Sandefjord II

56%

Winning margin

Donn wins by 2+

25%

Sandefjord II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Donn 1+ goals

88%

Donn 2+ goals

62%

Donn 3+ goals

35%

Sandefjord II 1+ goals

85%

Sandefjord II 2+ goals

56%

Sandefjord II 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Donn (draw refunded)

55%

Sandefjord II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donn at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Sandefjord II away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donn attack 1.38 + Sandefjord II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.12

Sandefjord II attack 1.69 + Donn defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Donn scores more

44%

level

21%

Sandefjord II scores more

35%

Donn at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Donn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff