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Sandefjord II vs Åskollen — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Sandefjord II
Sandefjord II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Åskollen
Åskollen
10/13/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 24Gamle Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sandefjord II62%
×Draw17%
Åskollen21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandefjord II
2.92
Åskollen
1.68

Sandefjord II creates 74% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sandefjord II
2.62
Åskollen
1.23

allows per match

Sandefjord II
2.12
Åskollen
3.23

finishing

Sandefjord II+0.00on par
Åskollen+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandefjord II ↓

Åskollen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Sandefjord II or draw
79%
Sandefjord II or Åskollen
83%
Draw or Åskollen
38%

Winning margin

Sandefjord II wins by 2+
42%
Åskollen wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sandefjord II 1+ goals
94%
Sandefjord II 2+ goals
78%
Sandefjord II 3+ goals
55%
Åskollen 1+ goals
81%
Åskollen 2+ goals
50%
Åskollen 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sandefjord II (draw refunded)
75%
Åskollen (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandefjord II at home — creates 2.62, concedes 2.12 · 26 matches

Åskollen away — creates 1.23, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandefjord II attack 2.62 + Åskollen defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.92

Åskollen attack 1.23 + Sandefjord II defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sandefjord II scores more
62%
level
17%
Åskollen scores more
21%

Sandefjord II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sandefjord II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Sandefjord II 3–2 Åskollen

Sandefjord II beat Åskollen 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on October 13, 2023.

The match was played at Gamle Stadion in Sandefjord.