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Åskollen vs Sandefjord II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Åskollen
Åskollen
FT
4 – 3
Sandefjord II
Sandefjord II
5/9/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 5Glassverket Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Åskollen55%
×Draw18%
Sandefjord II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åskollen
2.85
Sandefjord II
2.00

Åskollen creates 43% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Åskollen
2.85
Sandefjord II
1.69

allows per match

Åskollen
2.31
Sandefjord II
2.85

finishing

Åskollen+0.00on par
Sandefjord II+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åskollen ↓

Sandefjord II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Åskollen or draw
73%
Åskollen or Sandefjord II
82%
Draw or Sandefjord II
45%

Winning margin

Åskollen wins by 2+
36%
Sandefjord II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Åskollen 1+ goals
94%
Åskollen 2+ goals
77%
Åskollen 3+ goals
53%
Sandefjord II 1+ goals
86%
Sandefjord II 2+ goals
59%
Sandefjord II 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Åskollen (draw refunded)
67%
Sandefjord II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åskollen at home — creates 2.85, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Sandefjord II away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åskollen attack 2.85 + Sandefjord II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.85

Sandefjord II attack 1.69 + Åskollen defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Åskollen scores more
55%
level
18%
Sandefjord II scores more
27%

Åskollen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Åskollen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Åskollen vs Sandefjord II

Åskollen beat Sandefjord II 4-3 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on May 9, 2023.

The match was played at Glassverket Kunstgress in Drammen.