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Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Stomil Olsztyn — I Liga 2018

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
8/22/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 6Stadion im. Ojca Władysława Augustynka (Nowy Sącz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz43%
×Draw28%
Stomil Olsztyn29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.32
Stomil Olsztyn
1.02

Sandecja Nowy Sącz creates 29% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 68 away

creates per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.29
Stomil Olsztyn
0.88

allows per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.16
Stomil Olsztyn
1.35

finishing

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandecja Nowy Sącz ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or draw
71%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz or Stomil Olsztyn
72%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
57%

Winning margin

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+
20%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals
73%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals
38%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals
15%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
64%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
27%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)
60%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.16 · 85 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.29 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.88 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more
43%
level
28%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
29%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sandecja Nowy Sącz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1–0 Stomil Olsztyn

Sandecja Nowy Sącz beat Stomil Olsztyn 1-0 in I Liga on August 22, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion im. Ojca Władysława Augustynka (Nowy Sącz).