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Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Radunia Stężyca — II Liga - East 2019

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
3/5/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 20Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz44%
×Draw25%
Radunia Stężyca31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.54
Radunia Stężyca
1.25

Sandecja Nowy Sącz creates 23% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 61 away

creates per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.29
Radunia Stężyca
1.25

allows per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.24
Radunia Stężyca
1.79

finishing

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par
Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandecja Nowy Sącz ↓

Radunia Stężyca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or draw
69%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz or Radunia Stężyca
75%
Draw or Radunia Stężyca
56%

Winning margin

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+
22%
Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals
79%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals
45%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals
20%
Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
71%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
36%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)
59%
Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.29 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.54

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.25 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more
44%
level
25%
Radunia Stężyca scores more
31%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sandecja Nowy Sącz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Radunia Stężyca

Sandecja Nowy Sącz beat Radunia Stężyca 2-1 in II Liga - East on March 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego in Niepołomice.