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Radunia Stężyca vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz — II Liga - East 2019

Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
8/6/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 3Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Radunia Stężyca42%
×Draw25%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radunia Stężyca
1.49
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.30

Radunia Stężyca creates 15% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 36 away

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca
1.59
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.33

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca
1.27
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.39

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par
Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

Sandecja Nowy Sącz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw
67%
Radunia Stężyca or Sandecja Nowy Sącz
75%
Draw or Sandecja Nowy Sącz
58%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
20%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
77%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
44%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
19%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals
73%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals
37%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
56%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.59 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.49

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.33 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more
42%
level
25%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more
33%

Radunia Stężyca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radunia Stężyca vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Radunia Stężyca and Sandecja Nowy Sącz drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on August 6, 2023.

The match was played at Gminny Stadion Sportowy in Stężyca.